Well, I don’t want to get too into itty-bitty details. That would be premature, one might say. But I await more information! There’s a lot to be filled in, in my opinion.
Rest assured that this will be the talk of the convention tomorrow and all this week, though, so all gain will be wrung from this incident as possible, if not by Trump himself then by his associates. Mark my words.
I understand. I do. But two people are dead, and one injured, as I understand it, not including the Donald’s minor injury. That’s a very costly staging. In the example Novapsyche gave, no one was actually hurt.
Fascinating! And very disconcerting; I now understand why so many, from the right and the left, are saying the incident was faked. It’s because of the use Trump will surely make of it. I had not heard of the Jim Jones incident, and the parallels are eerie.
I can’t speak to why folks on the right might think it was staged. I’m listening to a BBC News podcast right now, and the reporting is that those on the right think that it’s a shadowy cabal who want to dispose of Trump, the Deep State, which traces back to the current administration. That’s not CT of fakery but of craftiness. But I saw lots of comments last night at the Washington Post from commenters who clearly were thinking the thing was staged, and they didn’t seem to be right-wing.
The Jim Jones story stuck with me because it is so outrageous. It speaks to the messianism that ran through his movement. Jones was a figure who became more corrupt and erratic over time, and it was right about the time when he bought the Redwood Valley church that he became more unstable. I’m sure researchers have delved into why that might be (he moved from the Midwest to the West coast, so new social circles may have had something to do with that). But it seems that Jones felt the need to impress his congregants with otherworldly powers — the power of resurrection and healing.
The parallel to MAGA is that there, too, is a streak of messianism in that movement. Followers of Trump regularly compare his travails to that of Jesus; they say he’s being “persecuted” instead of prosecuted. Trump himself has called himself the chosen one. So this instance will play into those themes. That’s unavoidable, I would posit. It fits into a guardian-angel type of conception, that Trump was miraculously saved.
It’s the “bloody shirt” aspect, the goosing of grievances by top-tier Republican figures, that concerns me the most. Those first impressions that Vance et al. spread in those first few hours are already set and will be almost impossible to unwind.
At this point in time, I’m inclined to believe that this was a sincere, albeit inept attempt at assassination. It’s not hard to think of why someone might want to kill a former American president, especially if that former president is Donald Trump. The only odd thing is that the perpetrator seems to have been a registered Republican and 2A enthusiast, but hopefully we’ll get some insights into his motive(s) later.
I think the notion that an incident like this is “in- American” is laughable. As Malcolm X said, “violence is as American as apple pie.” Four sitting American presidents were successfully killed, and there have been numerous unsuccessful attempts. Anyone who is knowledgeable about labor history, Black history, or Native American history should know that mass political violence is fine, as long as the targets are deemed to “need killing” for the good of the republic.
I would have liked for authorities to have attempted to take Crooks in for questioning. Dylann Roof was able to be taken alive. The guy who shot up the TOPS Supermarket walked out with his life. Now, I do realize he was actively shooting into the crowd; on the other hand, people on the ground had been trying to alert authorities to Crooks's presence on the roof for approximately five minutes, so theoretically speaking all of this could have been circumvented.
I'm surprised that we haven't heard by now if he left a goodbye note or manifesto. It doesn't appear that he has. If not, I find that unusual. The FBI apparently took his phone and computer, and his family is assisting the investigation. We may find something out; we may not. Either way, Crooks's background has scrambled the vector of messaging that had begun emanating from the right wing, and now I think they don't know what to say or do, except elevate and coronate Donald Trump.
Of course, some right-wing factions are still calling for violence against their designated enemies, and so things continue apace. I don't have clairvoyance, so this is a guess, but as I see it the movement of Christian nationalism has violence at its core, a theme that often lies fallow only to be raised in times of cultural crisis. I think Christian nationalist types do see Trump as a savior figure and so will take it ultra-personally that someone attempted to deprive them of that. Their need for vengeance has been stoked. But also I believe that those same people want an inauguration of their anticipated era to be one of purity gained by violence, which would entail bloodshed. I may be misreading -- I don't have my finger on the pulse of that community. But, reading certain sources about "holy terror," for example, and having some familiarity with national security advisories in the recent past about certain extremist groups in the US, I think I'm closer to the mark than not. I, of course, would prefer to be wrong.
Terrific piece - so many interesting points. It will not surprise me when Trump starts selling plaster casts of his ear for raising funds.
I did not know that fascinating history on Jones and that intense dedication to the showmanship of con artistry. The historical association that popped into my head was from a piece that Al Giordano recommended years ago on deMause's psychohistory, the emotional life of nations as revealed by the dominant words and frames spread throughout media. This piece was how that related to the attempt on Reagan:
I am also "wait and see" by disposition (and training). Much of my career was about tracking down software bugs - I got to work on fun puzzles and they paid me! My tail is not twitching yet about "something being wrong" with the shooting but it is very fallible. And of course some baseline twitching is ever present with any word or action from Trump.
I would expect forensic data to include matching spent bullets to shots fired. Via the number of stills and videos that are examined they will not only work out the bullet trajectory for each shot, but the state of the ear before and after. (The photo, viewed closeup seems to show a deformity.) They may interview the hospital staff that treated the wound.
The shooter's motivation will be aggressively investigated for a host of reasons. (It would raise my eyebrows if no inkling of motivation is located.) And I expect the site's security preparations will be relentlessly analyzed. If one looks at the nearby buildings it does seem like a failure, by not having better coverage of the one elevated place within shooting difference. But that is so far out of my lane, so I don't know. The distance was estimated at 400 feet. Compared to a more relatable experience that is a bit longer than the 360 feet from the back line of a football field end zone to the opposite one. Media have posted pieces on the mapping of those grounds and Wiki already has the latlong up to locate it on Google Maps.
On second thought, I don't have much faith in the quality of information we'll get about Trump's ear. I wish I were kidding: he was treated, at least in part, by Ronny Jackson, former WH doctor and current Texas representative.
"Representative Ronny Jackson, Republican of Texas, was on Donald J. Trump’s plane on Sunday afternoon, the day after the former president survived an assassination attempt, when he quickly reverted to his role of doctor.
"Mr. Jackson, who was Mr. Trump’s White House doctor during his presidency and parlayed their friendship into a successful run for Congress, replaced the dressing on the former president’s ear on a flight to Milwaukee for the Republican National Convention.
"'The bullet took a little bit off the top of his ear in an area that, just by nature, bleeds like crazy,' Mr. Jackson said in an interview. 'The dressing’s bulked up a bit because you need a bit of absorbent. You don’t want to be walking around with bloody gauze on his ear.'"
At this point, I would like to see full pictures. Jackson is neither impartial nor unimpeachable. As Reagan said, "Trust, but verify."
Good points. I did not know Jackson was present and assumed that a few at the hospital would have gotten a view while it was treated there. It looks to me that the first photo shows a plausible injury and yet I withhold all opinions other than: I would bet that forensics will record it before and after, and also a number of other curious image analysis folks on the internet are taking a look as well.
I tend to view all of this kind of inquiry as a matter of probabilities, weighing credibility of various theories/scenarios. And Crooks motivation - once more is revealed - will of course be huge. Until then I don't take any comfort that he registered Republican.
You're eminently reasonable. Thank you for that. :)
I was thinking about this whole situation last night, and it occurred to me that I was having these reservations because, fundamentally, I just don't trust Trump. At all. I have no reservoir of any sort of trust or extending the benefit of the doubt to him. So I must contend with the fact that I have these rather nagging questions because they're a function of that lack of credence.
Trump is exactly the type of person who would be a pyromaniac firefighter, right? The type who'd set a fire and then try to win accolades for battling it. I think a lot of people are having similar reactions of doubt because they too recognize this about him.
Well, I took the time to write out all of my outstanding questions and tentative sticking points this morning. The session lasted for a good while and generated several bullet points (I swear to god, that pun was unintentional). So I may just stick the pages in a drawer, so to speak, for six months, pull them out and see what to that point has actually been answered.
I swear, my one sticking point is the ear, because it's attached to the head, and considering the trajectory, I don't see how anyone gets that lucky. Is he really made out of Teflon? Now, I will say that learning that Crooks was startled by a policeman who had hoisted himself on the edge of the roof does alter my consideration of the scene, as he clearly knew he had little to no time left. He took the shot he had, which unfortunately also hit people in the stands.
The distance was just over the length of a 100-yd dash. I've run track in my distant past. That's not that far away at all. I did see more maps yesterday and today, though the stories are still rather shallow in terms of forensics, as far as I've been able to notice (though I admit that my feed is heavily curated and may not be showing me the sources that would have that information; I may have to do more peering, if I'm that interested, though I feel also that such a hunt would be a bit morbid).
The rooftop on which Crooks climbed should have been covered by Secret Service agents. As Sam Seder said today, at least there should have been a spotter there -- someone with binoculars -- because that roof had a great line of sight to the stage area. _Somebody_ should have been up there.
Thanks for the Luntz take. I can't disagree with him, though I'd be willing to say that some Trump 2016 voters who "fell off" in 2020 might be back in Trump's camp now. Also, I came across an article in the Washington Post that suggested (without much substance) that there was a significant shift in the political winds in Silicon Valley after the shooting, with tech guys openly wearing MAGA hats in San Francisco. *shrug* I don't understand why that got reported out without verification of this by the article's authors. (Here's a gift link: https://wapo.st/4661CPk )
That it was staged was my gut feeling too. That picture under the flag with his fist in the air and blood on his face are just too perfect.
Well, I don’t want to get too into itty-bitty details. That would be premature, one might say. But I await more information! There’s a lot to be filled in, in my opinion.
Rest assured that this will be the talk of the convention tomorrow and all this week, though, so all gain will be wrung from this incident as possible, if not by Trump himself then by his associates. Mark my words.
I understand. I do. But two people are dead, and one injured, as I understand it, not including the Donald’s minor injury. That’s a very costly staging. In the example Novapsyche gave, no one was actually hurt.
Good point, Mary.
Fascinating! And very disconcerting; I now understand why so many, from the right and the left, are saying the incident was faked. It’s because of the use Trump will surely make of it. I had not heard of the Jim Jones incident, and the parallels are eerie.
Hi Mary! Thanks for commenting.
I can’t speak to why folks on the right might think it was staged. I’m listening to a BBC News podcast right now, and the reporting is that those on the right think that it’s a shadowy cabal who want to dispose of Trump, the Deep State, which traces back to the current administration. That’s not CT of fakery but of craftiness. But I saw lots of comments last night at the Washington Post from commenters who clearly were thinking the thing was staged, and they didn’t seem to be right-wing.
The Jim Jones story stuck with me because it is so outrageous. It speaks to the messianism that ran through his movement. Jones was a figure who became more corrupt and erratic over time, and it was right about the time when he bought the Redwood Valley church that he became more unstable. I’m sure researchers have delved into why that might be (he moved from the Midwest to the West coast, so new social circles may have had something to do with that). But it seems that Jones felt the need to impress his congregants with otherworldly powers — the power of resurrection and healing.
The parallel to MAGA is that there, too, is a streak of messianism in that movement. Followers of Trump regularly compare his travails to that of Jesus; they say he’s being “persecuted” instead of prosecuted. Trump himself has called himself the chosen one. So this instance will play into those themes. That’s unavoidable, I would posit. It fits into a guardian-angel type of conception, that Trump was miraculously saved.
It’s the “bloody shirt” aspect, the goosing of grievances by top-tier Republican figures, that concerns me the most. Those first impressions that Vance et al. spread in those first few hours are already set and will be almost impossible to unwind.
At this point in time, I’m inclined to believe that this was a sincere, albeit inept attempt at assassination. It’s not hard to think of why someone might want to kill a former American president, especially if that former president is Donald Trump. The only odd thing is that the perpetrator seems to have been a registered Republican and 2A enthusiast, but hopefully we’ll get some insights into his motive(s) later.
I think the notion that an incident like this is “in- American” is laughable. As Malcolm X said, “violence is as American as apple pie.” Four sitting American presidents were successfully killed, and there have been numerous unsuccessful attempts. Anyone who is knowledgeable about labor history, Black history, or Native American history should know that mass political violence is fine, as long as the targets are deemed to “need killing” for the good of the republic.
I would have liked for authorities to have attempted to take Crooks in for questioning. Dylann Roof was able to be taken alive. The guy who shot up the TOPS Supermarket walked out with his life. Now, I do realize he was actively shooting into the crowd; on the other hand, people on the ground had been trying to alert authorities to Crooks's presence on the roof for approximately five minutes, so theoretically speaking all of this could have been circumvented.
I'm surprised that we haven't heard by now if he left a goodbye note or manifesto. It doesn't appear that he has. If not, I find that unusual. The FBI apparently took his phone and computer, and his family is assisting the investigation. We may find something out; we may not. Either way, Crooks's background has scrambled the vector of messaging that had begun emanating from the right wing, and now I think they don't know what to say or do, except elevate and coronate Donald Trump.
Of course, some right-wing factions are still calling for violence against their designated enemies, and so things continue apace. I don't have clairvoyance, so this is a guess, but as I see it the movement of Christian nationalism has violence at its core, a theme that often lies fallow only to be raised in times of cultural crisis. I think Christian nationalist types do see Trump as a savior figure and so will take it ultra-personally that someone attempted to deprive them of that. Their need for vengeance has been stoked. But also I believe that those same people want an inauguration of their anticipated era to be one of purity gained by violence, which would entail bloodshed. I may be misreading -- I don't have my finger on the pulse of that community. But, reading certain sources about "holy terror," for example, and having some familiarity with national security advisories in the recent past about certain extremist groups in the US, I think I'm closer to the mark than not. I, of course, would prefer to be wrong.
(Here's "Holy Terror: The Implication of Terrorism Motivated by a Religious Imperative" by Bruce Hoffmann, in case you're interested: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2007/P7834.pdf )
Terrific piece - so many interesting points. It will not surprise me when Trump starts selling plaster casts of his ear for raising funds.
I did not know that fascinating history on Jones and that intense dedication to the showmanship of con artistry. The historical association that popped into my head was from a piece that Al Giordano recommended years ago on deMause's psychohistory, the emotional life of nations as revealed by the dominant words and frames spread throughout media. This piece was how that related to the attempt on Reagan:
https://psychohistory.com/books/the-emotional-life-of-nations/chapter-1-the-emotional-life-of-nations/
I am also "wait and see" by disposition (and training). Much of my career was about tracking down software bugs - I got to work on fun puzzles and they paid me! My tail is not twitching yet about "something being wrong" with the shooting but it is very fallible. And of course some baseline twitching is ever present with any word or action from Trump.
I would expect forensic data to include matching spent bullets to shots fired. Via the number of stills and videos that are examined they will not only work out the bullet trajectory for each shot, but the state of the ear before and after. (The photo, viewed closeup seems to show a deformity.) They may interview the hospital staff that treated the wound.
The shooter's motivation will be aggressively investigated for a host of reasons. (It would raise my eyebrows if no inkling of motivation is located.) And I expect the site's security preparations will be relentlessly analyzed. If one looks at the nearby buildings it does seem like a failure, by not having better coverage of the one elevated place within shooting difference. But that is so far out of my lane, so I don't know. The distance was estimated at 400 feet. Compared to a more relatable experience that is a bit longer than the 360 feet from the back line of a football field end zone to the opposite one. Media have posted pieces on the mapping of those grounds and Wiki already has the latlong up to locate it on Google Maps.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-rally-shooting-pennsylvania-gunman-snipers-location-maps/
Oh, lastly did you catch Frank Luntz's take:
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-assassination-2668745166/
On second thought, I don't have much faith in the quality of information we'll get about Trump's ear. I wish I were kidding: he was treated, at least in part, by Ronny Jackson, former WH doctor and current Texas representative.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/us/politics/trump-shooting-ear-ronny-jackson-doctor.html?unlocked_article_code=1.700.FlOM.KKuR1lm63zLh&smid=url-share
"Representative Ronny Jackson, Republican of Texas, was on Donald J. Trump’s plane on Sunday afternoon, the day after the former president survived an assassination attempt, when he quickly reverted to his role of doctor.
"Mr. Jackson, who was Mr. Trump’s White House doctor during his presidency and parlayed their friendship into a successful run for Congress, replaced the dressing on the former president’s ear on a flight to Milwaukee for the Republican National Convention.
"'The bullet took a little bit off the top of his ear in an area that, just by nature, bleeds like crazy,' Mr. Jackson said in an interview. 'The dressing’s bulked up a bit because you need a bit of absorbent. You don’t want to be walking around with bloody gauze on his ear.'"
At this point, I would like to see full pictures. Jackson is neither impartial nor unimpeachable. As Reagan said, "Trust, but verify."
Good points. I did not know Jackson was present and assumed that a few at the hospital would have gotten a view while it was treated there. It looks to me that the first photo shows a plausible injury and yet I withhold all opinions other than: I would bet that forensics will record it before and after, and also a number of other curious image analysis folks on the internet are taking a look as well.
I tend to view all of this kind of inquiry as a matter of probabilities, weighing credibility of various theories/scenarios. And Crooks motivation - once more is revealed - will of course be huge. Until then I don't take any comfort that he registered Republican.
You're eminently reasonable. Thank you for that. :)
I was thinking about this whole situation last night, and it occurred to me that I was having these reservations because, fundamentally, I just don't trust Trump. At all. I have no reservoir of any sort of trust or extending the benefit of the doubt to him. So I must contend with the fact that I have these rather nagging questions because they're a function of that lack of credence.
Trump is exactly the type of person who would be a pyromaniac firefighter, right? The type who'd set a fire and then try to win accolades for battling it. I think a lot of people are having similar reactions of doubt because they too recognize this about him.
We are all very right to be extremely wary of the Don the Con.
Well, I took the time to write out all of my outstanding questions and tentative sticking points this morning. The session lasted for a good while and generated several bullet points (I swear to god, that pun was unintentional). So I may just stick the pages in a drawer, so to speak, for six months, pull them out and see what to that point has actually been answered.
I swear, my one sticking point is the ear, because it's attached to the head, and considering the trajectory, I don't see how anyone gets that lucky. Is he really made out of Teflon? Now, I will say that learning that Crooks was startled by a policeman who had hoisted himself on the edge of the roof does alter my consideration of the scene, as he clearly knew he had little to no time left. He took the shot he had, which unfortunately also hit people in the stands.
The distance was just over the length of a 100-yd dash. I've run track in my distant past. That's not that far away at all. I did see more maps yesterday and today, though the stories are still rather shallow in terms of forensics, as far as I've been able to notice (though I admit that my feed is heavily curated and may not be showing me the sources that would have that information; I may have to do more peering, if I'm that interested, though I feel also that such a hunt would be a bit morbid).
The rooftop on which Crooks climbed should have been covered by Secret Service agents. As Sam Seder said today, at least there should have been a spotter there -- someone with binoculars -- because that roof had a great line of sight to the stage area. _Somebody_ should have been up there.
Thanks for the Luntz take. I can't disagree with him, though I'd be willing to say that some Trump 2016 voters who "fell off" in 2020 might be back in Trump's camp now. Also, I came across an article in the Washington Post that suggested (without much substance) that there was a significant shift in the political winds in Silicon Valley after the shooting, with tech guys openly wearing MAGA hats in San Francisco. *shrug* I don't understand why that got reported out without verification of this by the article's authors. (Here's a gift link: https://wapo.st/4661CPk )