Another chance like this will not come again
Biden and his team have spent the last three days trying to convince us that we didn't see what we all saw. Inaction will doom the Democratic Party.
Six months ago, I wrote an essay publicly calling for President Biden to bow out of the 2024 race.
It was a rather lonely space then. Not too many people were openly saying this. There were some grumbles, some quiet urgings that occurred after some (at the time) oddball polls started coming out in late November, early December. Those polls showed Biden losing five or six swing states.
Many Democrats could make neither heads nor tails of these polls, so they considered them outliers.
I, on the other hand, living in one of those swing states, had access to news reports about local activism. I could see that the polls, at least for those that reflected my state, were no flukes.
When I wrote my essay, some people, also in the barren desert of public opinion, were saying Biden should be re-evaluated. But those other people, in the main, were centrists and Republicans pushing the idea that Biden was Just Too OldTM.
I made it clear from the start that my reservations had nothing to do with Biden’s age.
In horrendous timing, the Hur report was released in early February. This report, ostensibly clearing President Biden of any wrongdoing with regards to inadvertently storing classified documents, took aim at Biden’s age and mental capabilities. Democrats cried foul and banded together against this hatchet job. While this rally-around-the-leader response is understandable, it has led many to fold the Hur findings in with the thrust of the Abandon Biden movement, seeing them both as one big attack on Biden that needs to be fended off. This is a mistake.
Ageism absolutely is something we should fight against, both in general and in Biden’s case. His age does not matter; it’s whether he can do the job. End stop.
At the same time, it’s important to separate out the Hur advocates, with their ageist arguments, from those in the Abandon Biden movement, whose arguments stem directly from Biden’s own actions over the last 4-5 months.
About 50% of people experience cognitive decline, what we would call dementia. Many people reach their 80s, 90s, and even beyond, with clear lucidity. Numerical age does not tell you whether someone is up to the job, even a job with infinite shades of complexity.
No, age was never the disqualifier in my eyes. Rather, it was the fact that Biden straight out lied to the American people about material facts regarding Israel’s incursion into Gaza. He repeated atrocity propaganda that boosted consent for the United States to get as involved in Israel’s revenge tour as it did. He lied even after he was told about the inaccuracy of his information. He’s repeated the claim about beheaded babies at least three times.
There’s more, of course — this military campaign has been going on for nearly ten months now. Many things have happened over the course of that time that have truly implicated the United States in the sadism and barbarity that Israel has demonstrated in Gaza. The U.S. is just as culpable: morally, ethically, and legally. And that’s the fault of Joe Biden.
My dilemma? My conscience was (and is) not free to cast an affirmative endorsement of Biden in light of his support of Israel’s genocidal assault. As I wrote months ago, the Democratic Party needed to put someone on the ticket whereby voters, in the same predicament as me, would be freed from this ethical constraint.
I’m beside myself that Biden has put me and other voters like me in this position, where we as an entire nation are complicit in Israel’s genocidal actions. By extension of what this White House is doing, I am being forced to underwrite things that go against my entire moral compass. I would never stand for what’s being done in my name (and that is exactly why I write, to speak my conscience).
But Biden has put me and those like me in a terrible position. Because a vote is an affirmative endorsement. ✂️
It is nine months out from the 2024 election. Biden has done himself grievous electoral harm. He has conflicted many of those who otherwise would vote for the Democratic Party, as we have always done. He has endangered the election. ✂️
What I would like to see is Biden step aside. It’s late in the election season for him to make such a move, but I think it would be the best thing for the Democratic Party as a whole. Right now, Biden himself is the albatross.
As for this debate, I wasn’t even going to watch, as I saw it as diversionary entertainment. Both candidates had their issues from which they wanted to divert the voters’ gaze: Trump had just been convicted a felon, and Biden was still participating in war crimes, crimes against humanity, and arguably genocide. To me, the debate — never having had one so early in the calendar before in our history — was meant to drive the news cycle.
The fact that Biden did so poorly, so abysmally, elicited a spontaneous reaction across the board, from all sectors of the political spectrum, and opened the portal of conversation to a place that few thought would actually, honestly arrive: Democrats were openly discussing bringing a brand-new ticket to the American electorate come November.
The overall concern was image. Biden fulfilled how people on the right had portrayed him for months now. He confirmed those doubters’ worst fears, and crafted new ones in the minds of his long-time supporters.
Cable news anchors with well-placed sources high in the Democratic echelon reported that conversations were being had at the top rung of decision-making. The New York Times ran a banner editorial from its editorial board calling on Biden to step aside. People earnestly published methods of how to approach the logistics of an open convention.
That lasted about a day. Not even a full day. Because the very next day, Biden had a rally where he had put on his “fightin’ Joe” mask, and he had (obviously) dispatched his operatives to comment on background that he wasn’t considering leaving the race.
Now we’re back where we were six months ago, with stories in major newspapers telling Democratic voters to suck it up, that it’s too late to change candidates.
That’s a terrible message. That says to the voters, “We’re stuck.”
“We’re in quicksand, so you’d better stop struggling.”
I’ve seen several panicked responses over the last few days — panicked not on the side of those who want a fresh ticket, but those who are white-knuckled about any risk. The risk is too terrifying for them.
Quite curious rationales have been floated. I’ve seen instances of magical thinking, denial, superstitious belief (“What will sink us is all this talk against Biden”), motivated reasoning (after saying the polls have been wrong all year, glomming onto a single poll showing the barest of positive movement in Biden’s direction post-debate), taking things personally (“Biden is a good man!”). I’ve seen mindguards come out to quash discussion about what we all witnessed, because it’s apparently too dangerous to remark upon reality.
(One person I greatly respect went so far as to suggest that this talk of replacing Biden is a form of psychological warfare disseminated by a foreign entity. This person has a background in intelligence, and ordinarily I and others would defer to his expertise. However, the response on the ground, as I said, was organic and widespread. It was not localized to one band of the political spectrum; rather, Biden’s performance in the debate was universally recognized as a fatal wound. Rather than construing the subsequent discussion as a form of narrative warfare, one needs to consider that Biden did this to himself.)
The strangest rationale I’ve seen is, “The voters will be angry at us for changing the candidate and may not vote at all.”
This is odd, because I guarantee you that one of two things would happen.
The shaken voter who grew pallid at Biden’s performance would be relieved to see that the Democratic Party was nimble enough to respond.
The unsure voter, or those who had already considered their vote to be Uncommitted, would be incentivized to look at the fresh candidate.
In both cases, those voters, as well as those who had already committed to voting for Biden, would rally around the new person. “Vote blue no matter who” would still be operative.
In fact, someone new, more likely than not, would inject enthusiasm into a race that by all accounts has been drab. The party would have a new sense of energy.
The hesitation does not make sense. We will not have this chance again. Meanwhile, Republicans have largely convinced their supporters to vote for a convicted felon.
He who hesitates is lost.
From my perspective, we’ve already lost six months. It would have been better for Biden to pass the baton from a position of strength. That time is past. We need to appreciate the shortened clock that we have in front of us.
We don’t have time for any more dithering and cannot afford to wait. By the time another indicator might make itself known, a month or two down the road, it really will be too late.
It’s sad that Biden lost face in the debate. No one wants something like that to be the final impression one leaves. But Biden can still be a “kingmaker” and bestow his blessing upon the person who would take up his mantle. He still has time to etch his place in the annals.
If the argument is that democracy is on the line, then at this point, with everything taken into account, Biden should sacrifice himself for the ultimate benefit of the country. That’s what the New York Times said in their big-banner editorial, and it’s what I said many months ago.
In one of the most succinct arguments I’ve seen, folks at the Bulwark said this:
We will be accused of urging a risky course. But surely the greater risk is trying to persuade our fellow citizens to pretend all is well. A messy and unpredictable open Democratic convention would be risky. But that risk is better than an orderly march to a neat and predictable defeat.
I really hope smart, clear-eyed decision-makers prevail.
Essays from earlier this year:
I will be voting for Biden if his name is on the ballot. I strongly oppose what he is putting forward as American policy toward Israel. I think the US government is helping carry out a genocide. A Trump win would be 100xs worse. I am absolutely sure of that and because of that sureness I feel no ethical conflict for my vote. None. But it makes me SICK that this IS where we are. I have no idea where all of this ends up. We, the American people, have allowed this to be the reality. So I accept my part in it. I am not a revolutionary. But I think I should have been. I am not at all optimistic about where this ends up. Not at all.
I would vote for any Democrat on the ticket. I think most Democrats would. So I don’t know if changing candidates would be a bad option. I’m guessing Biden will be the nominee. What does it say about Biden that this is so close and his opponent is a psycho, felon, who stole top secret documents and tried to overthrow the government? What does it say about Biden? What does it say about us? It’s pathetic. We better hope we don’t get what we deserve. I think we are in for some bad times.
There are risks either way and it is difficult to find some media accounts about those. details. I don't care which way we go as long as some actual wise experts in Dem Party organizations can assess the comparative risks and scenarios.
And I could be fine with a substitute, but we have basically run out of time. The nomination will be held via virtual roll call as has been discussed for the last 2-3 months in order to get Biden on the Ohio ballet. That is important because it should help boost the numbers of Sen. Brown and the downballot state offices as well.
Bloomberg had a piece (yesterday?) saying that the virtual roll call would be on July 21 and the Ohio deadline is Aug 7, so we've got 3-5 weeks before the nomination is held.. It looks like Kristol may have missed this since he mentions a brokered convention.
From June 21: "On Thursday, members of the Democratic National Committee approved moving up the Biden-Harris nomination and to allow for an “electronic” roll call. The vote was 360 for, two against and five abstaining. The date for nominating Biden and Harris has not been set, but it will be before Ohio’s Aug. 7 deadline."
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2024-democratic-national-convention/2024/06/21/dnc-chicago-prime-time-roll-call-biden
Thank you for pushing back on ageism. It is so deeply embedded, its disturbing. DK predictably dealt with it through claims of Biden's good health, then "what about trumps age", etc - all the while repeating the framing focused on chronological age instead of personal experience and assets.